Publications, Working Papers, and Materials
On or Off Track: How (Broken) Streaks Affect Consumer Decisions
(2023) Journal of Consumer Research
Abstract
New technologies increasingly enable consumers to track their behaviors over time, making them more aware of their “streaks” – behaviors performed consecutively three or more times – than ever before. Our research explores how these logged streaks affect consumers’ decisions to engage in the same behavior subsequently. In seven studies, we find that intact streaks highlighted via behavioral logs increase consumers’ subsequent engagement in that behavior, relative to when broken streaks are highlighted. Importantly, this effect is independent of actual past behavior, and depends solely on how that behavior is represented within the log. This is because consumers consider maintaining a logged streak to be a meaningful goal in and of itself. In line with this theory, the effect of intact (vs. broken) logged streaks is amplified when consumers attribute a break in the streak to themselves rather than to external factors, and attenuated when consumers can “repair” a broken streak. Our research provides actionable insights for companies seeking to benefit from highlighting consumers’ streaks in various consequential domains (e.g., fitness, learning) without incurring a cost (e.g., reduced engagement or abandonment) when those streaks are broken.
The Prediction Order Effect: People are More Likely to Choose Improbable Outcomes in Later Predictions
(2024) Management Science
Abstract
People often need to predict the outcomes of future events. We investigate the influence of order on such forecasts. Six preregistered studies (N = 7,955) show that people are more likely to forecast improbable outcomes (e.g., that an “underdog” will win a game) for predictions they make later, versus earlier, within a sequence of multiple predictions. This effect generalizes across several contexts and persists when participants are able to revise their predictions, as well as when they are incentivized to make correct predictions. We propose that this effect is driven by people’s assumption that improbable outcomes are bound to occur at some point within small sets of independent events (i.e., “belief in the law of small numbers”). Accordingly, we find that the effect is attenuated when the statistical independence of events is made salient to forecasters, both through the nature of the predictions themselves (i.e., when the events are from distinct domains) and through directly informing them about statistical independence. These findings have notable practical implications, as in their roles as choice architects, policy-makers and businesses have the ability to control the order in which people evaluate and predict future events.
https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/full/10.1287/mnsc.2022.01175
Hot Streak! Inferences and Predictions of Goal Adherence
(2023) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Abstract
When do people make optimistic forecasts about goal adherence? Nine studies find that a recent streak of goal-consistent behavior increases the predicted likelihood that the individual will persist, compared to various other patterns holding the rate of goal adherence constant. This effect is due to perceiving a higher level of commitment following a streak. Accordingly, the effect is larger when the behavior requires commitment to stick with it, compared to when the same behavior is enjoyable in its own right. Furthermore, the effect is weaker in the presence of another diagnostic cue of commitment: when the individual has a high historic rate of goal adherence. People also behave strategically in ways consistent with these inferences (e.g., are less likely to adopt costly goal support tools following a streak, choose partners with recent streaks for joint goal pursuit). Together, these results demonstrate the significance of streaky behavior for forecasting goal adherence.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2023.104281
Doing Good for (Maybe) Nothing: How Reward Uncertainty Shapes Observer Responses to Prosocial Behavior
(2022) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Abstract
When firms or individuals stand to benefit from doing good, observers often question their motivations and discount their good deeds. We propose that this attribution process is sensitive not only to the presence of extrinsic incentives, but also to their prior likelihoods. Across eleven studies, observers treat uncertain rewards (vs. equally valuable certain rewards) as weaker signals of extrinsic motivation. Consequently, observers judge actors who do good when facing uncertain incentives as more purely motivated, benevolent, and likable, and they prefer products from brands that incur profit uncertainty when launching CSR initiatives. Even actors who are handsomely rewarded for doing good are judged favorably if rewards were uncertain at the outset. These effects may stem from more general processes of counterfactual attribution: Actors who do good knowing they might not be rewarded for it may seem more like they would have been willing to act without any incentive at all.
Harder than You Think: Misconceptions about Logging Food with Photos versus Text
(2022) Journal of the Association of Consumer Research
Abstract
Consumers lose more weight when they log their food consumption more consistently, yet they face challenges in doing so. We investigate how the modality of food logging—whether people record what they eat by taking photos versus writing text—affects their anticipated and actual logging experience and behavior. We find that consumers are more likely to adopt and anticipate better experiences with photo-based food logging tools over text-based tools. However, in a weeklong field study, these expectations reveal themselves to be inaccurate; once participants start logging, they find taking photos (versus writing text) to be more difficult, log less of what they eat, and are less likely to continue using the logging tool. These findings contribute to existing research on how people track goal progress, as well as persistence with and dis-adoption of products. Moreover, our findings provide insights into what might increase the use of products that encourage healthy eating.
Does Setting a Time Limit Affect Time Spent?
Working Paper
Abstract
New technologies have made it easier than ever before to consume content online. Consumers spend hours browsing social media, playing games, and watching videos. To aid in consumers’ time management, many companies (e.g., TikTok, Instagram, YouTube) have recently introduced the option to set a “time limit” on their platforms. These features ask consumers to select an amount of time after which they would like to receive an alert. But while giving consumers this option may be well intended, how does it actually impact time spent? Contrary to expectations, rather than leading consumers to spend less time on an activity, five pre-registered experiments demonstrate that setting a time limit can have the opposite effect. This occurs because consumers implicitly treat time limits like budgets, perceiving time up to the limit as earmarked for the activity and facilitating such spending. Consequently, setting a time limit (vs. not) can increase time spent. The findings further understanding of the impact of new technologies, how consumers mentally budget time, and the effects of limits. Further, they have clear implications for the use of limits as a time management tool: merely providing the option to set a time limit may be insufficient to protect consumer wellbeing.
How Do People Weigh Different Rank Information?
Working Paper
Abstract
How do people use ranking information when evaluating products? In seven pre-registered experiments, we find a persistent preference for products ranked within shorter lists (vs. longer lists). For instance, participants rated a product ranked 2nd on a list of 8 products more positively and chose it more often relative to a product ranked 4th on a list of 16 products, although the products ranked at the same percentile within their respective lists. We propose that this effect is driven by people’s tendency to rely on the mere rank position (2nd vs. 4th) instead of incorporating the list length (8 vs. 16) to deduce the percentile ranking of the product (25th percentile). Given that products of the same percentile ranking receive higher rank positions on shorter lists, people thus evaluate such products more positively. In line with this account, we find that the effect is attenuated when we: (a) explicitly provide products’ percentile ranking, and (b) draw attention to the list length by highlighting the number of products ranked below the focal product. These findings are practically important to managers and organizations who can control how ranked lists are communicated.
Photographic Memory: The Effects of Volitional Photo Taking on Memory for Visual and Auditory Aspects of an Experience
(2017) Psychological Science
Abstract
How does volitional photo taking affect unaided memory for visual and auditory aspects of experiences? Across one field and three lab studies, we found that, even without revisiting any photos, participants who could freely take photographs during an experience recognized more of what they saw and less of what they heard, compared with those who could not take any photographs. Further, merely taking mental photos had similar effects on memory. These results provide support for the idea that photo taking induces a shift in attention toward visual aspects and away from auditory aspects of an experience. Additional findings were in line with this mechanism: Participants with a camera had better recognition of aspects of the scene that they photographed than of aspects they did not photograph. Furthermore, participants who used a camera during their experience recognized even non-photographed aspects better than participants without a camera did. Meta-analyses including all reported studies support these findings.
Check out my CV for information about my ongoing research.