Publications, Working Papers, and Materials
On or Off Track: How (Broken) Streaks Affect Consumer Decisions
(2023) Journal of Consumer Research
ABSTRACT: New technologies increasingly enable consumers to track their behaviors over time, making them more aware of their “streaks” – behaviors performed consecutively three or more times – than ever before. Our research explores how these logged streaks affect consumers’ decisions to engage in the same behavior subsequently. In seven studies, we find that intact streaks highlighted via behavioral logs increase consumers’ subsequent engagement in that behavior, relative to when broken streaks are highlighted. Importantly, this effect is independent of actual past behavior, and depends solely on how that behavior is represented within the log. This is because consumers consider maintaining a logged streak to be a meaningful goal in and of itself. In line with this theory, the effect of intact (vs. broken) logged streaks is amplified when consumers attribute a break in the streak to themselves rather than to external factors, and attenuated when consumers can “repair” a broken streak. Our research provides actionable insights for companies seeking to benefit from highlighting consumers’ streaks in various consequential domains (e.g., fitness, learning) without incurring a cost (e.g., reduced engagement or abandonment) when those streaks are broken.
The Prediction Order Effect: People are More Likely to Choose Improbable Outcomes in Later Predictions
(2024) Management Science
ABSTRACT: People often need to predict the outcomes of future events. We investigate the influence of order on such forecasts. Six preregistered studies (N = 7,955) show that people are more likely to forecast improbable outcomes (e.g., that an “underdog” will win a game) for predictions they make later, versus earlier, within a sequence of multiple predictions. This effect generalizes across several contexts and persists when participants are able to revise their predictions, as well as when they are incentivized to make correct predictions. We propose that this effect is driven by people’s assumption that improbable outcomes are bound to occur at some point within small sets of independent events (i.e., “belief in the law of small numbers”). Accordingly, we find that the effect is attenuated when the statistical independence of events is made salient to forecasters, both through the nature of the predictions themselves (i.e., when the events are from distinct domains) and through directly informing them about statistical independence. These findings have notable practical implications, as in their roles as choice architects, policy-makers and businesses have the ability to control the order in which people evaluate and predict future events.
Hot Streak! Inferences and Predictions of Goal Adherence
(2023) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
ABSTRACT: When do people make optimistic forecasts about goal adherence? Nine studies find that a recent streak of goal-consistent behavior increases the predicted likelihood that the individual will persist, compared to various other patterns holding the rate of goal adherence constant. This effect is due to perceiving a higher level of commitment following a streak. Accordingly, the effect is larger when the behavior requires commitment to stick with it, compared to when the same behavior is enjoyable in its own right. Furthermore, the effect is weaker in the presence of another diagnostic cue of commitment: when the individual has a high historic rate of goal adherence. People also behave strategically in ways consistent with these inferences (e.g., are less likely to adopt costly goal support tools following a streak, choose partners with recent streaks for joint goal pursuit). Together, these results demonstrate the significance of streaky behavior for forecasting goal adherence.
Doing Good for (Maybe) Nothing: How Reward Uncertainty Shapes Observer Responses to Prosocial Behavior
(2022) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
ABSTRACT: When firms or individuals stand to benefit from doing good, observers often question their motivations and discount their good deeds. We propose that this attribution process is sensitive not only to the presence of extrinsic incentives, but also to their prior likelihoods. Across eleven studies, observers treat uncertain rewards (vs. equally valuable certain rewards) as weaker signals of extrinsic motivation. Consequently, observers judge actors who do good when facing uncertain incentives as more purely motivated, benevolent, and likable, and they prefer products from brands that incur profit uncertainty when launching CSR initiatives. Even actors who are handsomely rewarded for doing good are judged favorably if rewards were uncertain at the outset. These effects may stem from more general processes of counterfactual attribution: Actors who do good knowing they might not be rewarded for it may seem more like they would have been willing to act without any incentive at all.
Harder than You Think: Misconceptions about Logging Food with Photos versus Text
(2022) Journal of the Association of Consumer Research
ABSTRACT: Consumers lose more weight when they log their food consumption more consistently, yet they face challenges in doing so. We investigate how the modality of food logging—whether people record what they eat by taking photos versus writing text—affects their anticipated and actual logging experience and behavior. We find that consumers are more likely to adopt and anticipate better experiences with photo-based food logging tools over text-based tools. However, in a weeklong field study, these expectations reveal themselves to be inaccurate; once participants start logging, they find taking photos (versus writing text) to be more difficult, log less of what they eat, and are less likely to continue using the logging tool. These findings contribute to existing research on how people track goal progress, as well as persistence with and dis-adoption of products. Moreover, our findings provide insights into what might increase the use of products that encourage healthy eating.
Photographic Memory: The Effects of Volitional Photo Taking on Memory for Visual and Auditory Aspects of an Experience
(2017) Psychological Science
ABSTRACT: How does volitional photo taking affect unaided memory for visual and auditory aspects of experiences? Across one field and three lab studies, we found that, even without revisiting any photos, participants who could freely take photographs during an experience recognized more of what they saw and less of what they heard, compared with those who could not take any photographs. Further, merely taking mental photos had similar effects on memory. These results provide support for the idea that photo taking induces a shift in attention toward visual aspects and away from auditory aspects of an experience. Additional findings were in line with this mechanism: Participants with a camera had better recognition of aspects of the scene that they photographed than of aspects they did not photograph. Furthermore, participants who used a camera during their experience recognized even non-photographed aspects better than participants without a camera did. Meta-analyses including all reported studies support these findings.
Time Limits as Reference Points: When Setting a Time Limit Increases Time Spent Online
Working Paper
ABSTRACT: Time limits are increasingly ubiquitous. People can set time limits on a variety of online activities, including browsing the internet, watching videos, checking email, playing games, and scrolling social media. Yet, little is known about how setting time limits shapes time spent. Five pre-registered online experiments (Ntotal = 2,626; plus four supplemental studies) find that generous time limits (i.e., those above average time spent) can encourage people to spend more time on the activity than they would in their absence; stringent time limits, in contrast, have no such effect. This occurs because time limits act as reference points, making people feel better about spending time up to the limit on that activity. Consequently, contrary to popular beliefs, our findings demonstrate that time limits do not unilaterally decrease time spent. The findings underscore the need to carefully consider whether and what time limits to set to effectively manage our online behavior.
How Consumers Use Rank Position and List Length in Product Evaluations
Working Paper
SSRN
ABSTRACT: How do people use ranking information when evaluating products? In nine preregistered experiments, we find a persistent preference for products ranked within shorter (vs. longer) lists. For instance, participants preferred a product ranked 2nd of 8 over one ranked 4th of 16, despite both having the same relative position within their respective lists (25th percentile). We propose that when consumers evaluate rankings, they primarily consider the position of a product relative to the best products on the list (i.e., distance from the top-ranked alternative). Thus, they tend to prefer products ranked in shorter lists, even when their relative percentile ranking is the same as—or even worse than—an alternative ranked in longer lists. Accordingly, we find that the effect attenuates when we (a) draw attention to the distance from the bottom-ranked option by highlighting the number of products ranked below the focal product; (b) emphasize the product’s relative position on the list; and (c) ask participants about their preferences for full lists, rather than individual products ranked within them. These findings are theoretically important for advancing the understanding of how people process ranking information and practically important to marketers who can control how ranked lists are constructed and communicated.
The Motivating Power of Streaks: Increasing Persistence Is as Easy as 1, 2, 3
Working Paper
ABSTRACT: Organizations often use financial incentives to boost employees’ commitment to work-relevant goals in an effort to increase persistence and goal achievement (e.g., to improve organizational efficiency or sales). We introduce and test a novel incentive scheme designed to enhance persistence by increasing commitment to the goal of maximizing earnings. Specifically, we test “streak incentives,” or rewards that offer people increasing payouts for completing multiple consecutive work tasks. Across six pre-registered studies (total N = 4,504), we show that, contrary to standard economic models suggesting people will complete more piece-rate work for larger rewards, people actually complete more work when compensated with streak incentives than with larger, stable incentives. We theorize that this occurs because, by encouraging consecutive task completion, streak incentives increase commitment to a goal of maximizing earnings, which in turn increases persistence. We also show that this effect is not driven by the increasing nature of streak incentives; rather, people’s goal commitment and motivation are boosted by the requirement that they complete work tasks consecutively to earn escalating payments. Taken together, our results suggest that designing incentives to encourage streaks of work is a low-cost way to increase goal commitment and therefore persistence in organizations and other contexts.
Using Expenditure Reframes to Increase Interest in Claiming Government Benefits: Evidence from Three Large-Scale Field Experiments
Working Paper
ABSTRACT: Millions of eligible lower-income people do not apply for government benefits. Increasing interest in applying for these benefits is a crucial concern for marketers and economists, as the underutilization of benefits limits their effectiveness. This research proposes that expenditure reframes—descriptions translating monetary amounts into expense categories—can increase interest in government benefits. Expenditure reframes enhance a benefit’s perceived value, helping consumers better understand its financial impact. Evidence from a large-scale preregistered field experiment (N = 14,267) aimed at encouraging lower-income individuals to claim a tax credit demonstrates that expenditure reframe messages significantly increased interest, driving a 25% increase in visits to the claiming website. A second preregistered large-scale field experiment among Medicaid recipients (N = 71,939) identifies a boundary condition for the efficacy of expenditure reframes. A third preregistered large-scale field experiment replicates the efficacy of expenditure reframes (N = 36,081) and also highlights how the expense type featured in the reframe moderates these effects. Results from three preregistered controlled online experiments support these findings and further elucidate the impact of expenditure reframes on value perceptions. This work underscores how marketers, practitioners, and policymakers shape perceptions of government benefits and illustrates key considerations for designing effective outreach campaigns targeting lower-income households.
Check out my CV for information about my ongoing research.